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Ivey index suggests economy still solid

The Canadian Press

TORONTO — The Ivey purchasing managers index — an indicator of economic activity in Canada — has come in higher than expected for June at 69.6, pointing to continuing solid expansion.

The index, based on a survey of 175 private-sector and government enterprises selected to reflect the economy as a whole, was up from 67.4 in June 2007 and 62.2 in June 2006.

The latest reading of 69.6 was well above the consensus expectation of 63 among economists who follow the index.

A figure above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 indicates an economic pullback, but the latest index was skewed by higher prices, notably for oil.

The index is not adjusted for inflation or seasonal factors, and University of Western Ontario professor Michiel Leenders, director of the index, noted that the price subindex stood at 84.1 in June — the highest since its inception.

“As a consequence the Ivey PMI is undoubtedly higher than it should be given a more normal level of inflation.”

According to a commentary from Action Economics, “the main takeaway is that the index remains in solidly expansionary territory that is consistent with continued growth in Canadian businesses.”

The Ivey employment subindex for June stood at 58.2, inventories at 61.9 and supplier deliveries at 41.7.


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